Why USD/JPY May Be The Smartest Pair To Trade This Week
Courtney T. Shepherd
April 30, 2025
A MIDWEEK MARKET STRATEGY YOU CAN USE
Welcome to Everything Subject To Change, the daily digital newsletter for modern investors, traders, and entrepreneurs navigating a world that's always in motion.
It's Wednesday, April 30th, and today's Forex Brief zeros in on one question:
What's the smartest currency pair to trade as we roll into May?
You're in the right place if you're here to find clarity in the chaos. Let's speak about it!
FOREX MARKET RECAP: WHY THE YEN IS GETTING CRUSHED
The foreign exchange markets are heating up, and all eyes are on USD/JPY after the yen dropped to a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar earlier this week.
Why the slide?
The Bank of Japan just reiterated its ultra-loose monetary policy—signaling it will not raise interest rates in the near future. Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed is staying the course with its hawkish tone, which continues to prop up the dollar.
That widening gap between interest rate policies? It's fueling momentum traders to ride the dollar's strength against the yen.
As of today, USD/JPY is hovering near 157.50, and institutional traders are watching for a break above the psychological level of 158.
TRADE STRATEGY BREAKDOWN: WHAT TO WATCH GOING INTO MAY
Here's the strategy:
If USD/JPY breaks 158 with strong volume, that could signal a bullish breakout into the 160s — levels not seen since the early 1990s.
Watch for confirmation:
Tokyo open volatility
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll hints on Friday
DXY (Dollar Index) strength
Alternatively, if we see a retracement from this level, a swing-trade opportunity could open between 155.50 and 158.00, especially for those deploying tight stop-losses.
This is a trader's market right now. You need to move with precision, not emotion.
MARKET PREDICTION: IS USD/JPY ON A RUN TO 160?
Here's our prediction:
USD/JPY is likely to test 160 before it retreats — and if it breaks above with global risk-off sentiment in play, we could see a new normal set for this pair.
Whether you're scalping, swinging, or position trading —
the dollar-yen pair deserves your attention.
POWER INSIGHT: DON'T JUST TRADE CHARTS
This week's Power Insight?
Don't just trade charts—trade central bank psychology. The story behind the candles is always monetary policy. Stay tuned to the divergence between interest rate policy and inflation language.
That's where the money is made.
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